The boyfriend(s) of India...

No point beating the bush that India is getting westernized or modernized or globalised or anything to do with western culture rushing into Indian streams. No denial of India’s love for the west. I am not interested in talking about modern Indian girls displaying what they were not supposed to display earlier, and with that display obstructing the display of Indian culture. Also I am not interested in discussing what a modern Indian girl should be like or how she should behave. I am definitely not on right wing propaganda.Girls are also no longer shy enough to make more-than-a-few boyfriends at a time, of course they have their own reasons for that.

India is a stunning girl of this modern glamorous world and is definitely making a lot of boyfriends. Not to mention, not all girls possess this skill. India in its red romper, flowing black hair, waxed legs is surely a center of attraction for everyone out there. Everyone’s trying for a cup of coffee, but before the other one. The permanent five of the United Nations Security Council all visited India last year to try their luck (the powerful one’s get the first chance everywhere). India is charming enough to make everyone happy. Striking a deal or two with everyone, but tried for a nuclear deal with everyone (of course for her own reasons). Uncle Sam (U.S) seems more interested in keeping the other big guy away from India, he is quite disgruntled with China. China is keeping its currency undervalued by buying a hell lot of US treasury bonds. The undervalued currency helps his exports and thus he is able to provide a lot of gifts to India. Uncle Sam had already messed up his economy by being over smart and now wants to blame China for destabilizing the world economy. China is a tough guy, won’t be easily bullied by him. China tries to get her attention by timely declaring new dams on Brahamputra, by issuing stapled visa, by raising border disputes. He just tries every possible thing to grab her attention. But has deep love inside and the bilateral trades are increasing. All the raw material from India gets finished there only.    

India is also busy in all possible implantation to attract more and more guys towards her. The proposals to increase the FDI limits in various sectors, preferring autonomous way to FDI than the FIPB route, changing of mining laws, passage of RTI, opening up of economy, moving towards capital account convertibility are just a few to name. Earlier she had natural beauty so there was no need for all this, but that excessive beauty made her vulnerable as well. Now she is the 21^st century woman.

Guys like Pakistan are just jealous and want to throw acid to annihilate her beauty. He sends the terrorists, he causes the blasts, and he organizes riots in Kashmir. But the 21^st century woman is too strong; he gets a time to time canning for his nuisances, left right and center. Guys like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh know that they have no chance at all, so they are happy playing their role for fixing dates with the big guys. If you can’t get her, just try to behave as brother, atleast you get a chance to talk and at times touch. They provide her the strategic positions to avoid the unwelcomed guests and in return get some bilateral trade. Guys like Bhutan almost get their quarter budget funded by India. Nepal is trying to get his constitution being made with India’s help, but India after 60 years is still busy understanding hers own. Sri Lanka’s President is a student of Indian university, so as every college guy of India he is confused as to what to do with his nation and lives in a constant fear that one day Sri Lanka will become a part of Tamil Nadu.

There are various guys, who feel they are not competent enough to try their luck on India, come in groups, groups like ASEAN, SAARC, BIMSTEC, MERCOSUR etc. India also tries to be involved in all of them, after all I don’t know a single girl who doesn’t like to get attention from all the guys in the party. So when the economic party is on, then why not show a piece of glamour of entice everyone.  

   

Then there is the old boyfriend The Soviet Union, now disintegrated into number of parts, the biggest one called Russia. It’s a time tested relationship. Whatever happens, the love of Russia never seems to fade away. He has always loved her, but feels a bit uncomfortable these days, looking at so many other relations India is making with other guys. Russia is also a big guy, he has huge natural wealth, he is rich, he is powerful, but not as it used to be before 1991. He has always taken a single and sole stand for India against all tides. This one side love always hurts the most, and that too when it’s true. Rapist turned friend, U.K is not getting the desired love it expects. History could be the reason. But when it comes to money I guess the relationship can be made better, everything melts down to economy these days (monetary reasons). He also came to India last year, with lots of lovely gifts and in return wanted India to save his degrading economy.

~

The geopolitics has become more of geo-eco-politics. India is making the best use of it. She makes relationships with everyone and anyone which can fulfill her energy needs. With energy she makes a fast development and becomes more and more beautiful. This charm will continue until the time the growth is in full swing. Once the beauty becomes stagnant, the guys will leave and then she will have to be self sustained enough to carry on. Then no boyfriend will welcome her every step, nor will he take care of her needs. He is taking care because he is getting something in return.  As I said before, no point beating the bush that world is getting westernized or modernized or globalised. This is how relations are these days. More materialistic than sentimental, more pragmatic than natural and more realistic than emotional. India’s relationship is also like that only, no marriage material. She knows how to move now, but also has to make arrangements for the upcoming lonely times. India should focus more on domestic growth and consumption. The export driven economy can not be a sustainable mode of growth. Also the manufacturing segment should be bolstered, the service sector should never be neglected and fiscal consolidation should always take place.

India likes all her boyfriends but loves only a few and also tacitly deeply loves China, but when she can have so many boyfriends, then what is the need to marry any of them. ;)    

PS: I have portrayed India as a lady not because it can be an analogy to weakness, but to show that woman these days are not weak, as considered before, at least in Indian context. India has faced the burns and brunt during colonial era, and now politicians are trying to sell India into the hands of only a few rich ones. As a true Indian lady, India is self sustainable for growth and also can help the other one’s around. It’s time for grassroot development and empowerment.

The Commanding Cronies of India and the Meek Naxalites

Adam Smith has stated, “The disposition to admire, and almost to worship, the rich and the powerful…neglect persons of poor and mean condition…is the greatest and most universal cause of corruption of our moral sentiments”. Indian capitalists have become so strong that the political parties have no other option than to worship them. Crony capitalism has always been a part of this modern industrialized corporate world. But what price are we paying? Are we really electing the government who works for our betterment? Are we living in oblivion that one day our net worth will increase as our country’s GDP is increasing? Are the so called fruits of development really gonna reach us? Is there a real free market regime or we are getting more cartelized? And above all, are we living actually in a democracy or is it just an institutional democracy?

It’s a well know fact, that India faces internal as well as external insurgencies. It’s relatively easier to understand the external threats, maybe because they straight away attack our integrity. I guess that’s what we understand when it comes to internal security as well, when we talk about Kashmir or Naxalite like issues we are made to believe that they are a threat to our integrity, they are the proclaimed separatists. Bu the equation is not that simple. Our Prime Minister has stated that Naxalites are the single biggest internal security challenge. Let’s ask a few questions to ourselves and then see how big this threat is.

Who actually are Naxalites? Are Naxalites and Maoist same?

In 1967, an uprising occurred in a village called Naxalbari near Siliguiri in West Bengal. They had a simple demand of “land to tiller”. They were fed up of being landless agricultural laborers. They decided to distribute the land amongst themselves (following socialism as enshrined in our preamble) and carry on their activity. Somehow the government did not like it, as they cannot allow the poor and uneducated to take decision for themselves. When their whole intelligentsia thinks it is suitable for them to be landless, how in the world they can they decide against it. So police was deployed, and the result was the uprising. So from then, anyone who decided to fight for their rights is termed Naxalite, the biggest threat to our constitution and democracy.
As, every group with political ambitions follow some or the other ideology. Here the ambitions are more administrative than political. Still as their leaders are following the ideology of Chairman Mao, so eventually they all become Maoist as well. Now, if you also like the ideology of Mao you are Maoist and in turn a Naxalite and thus a threat to the nation, you must be killed.

What is Salwa Judum?

As India is incessantly working for our development, so it is one of the major employment schemes in the tribal areas. Here the tribal people who like to follow the government instructions are employed and provided with weapons. Their job is pretty simple…just kill the ones who do not like to follow the government. This is a part of poverty reduction scheme as well. As per the government, tribals cannot bring themselves above the poverty line on their own, and also they are not allowing government to do so, so the best option for them is to die. And thus we also inch closer to the UN Millennium Development Goals, and thus keeping our global obligations.    

What is the government’s interest in that area?

Of course Development! What else the largest democracy in the world wants? They want to teach those uncivilized tribals how to live. As till now they have known the principles of sustainable development, and were able to survive in the jungles for years, but now they do not have the requisite skills remaining with them. They need the state’s support to survive. The industrialists are not pushing them to make the way clear for mining (for the thousands of MOU that they have signed). Our industrialists are concerned more about the people than the money. Government does not give it a damn, if bauxite worth 4 trillion is lying in the hills of that area. We are not a capitalist economy… we are a socialist democratic country, believing in welfare economics. No one is fool to not to understand as simple thing as that. The interest is more of the capitalists, who see the wealth beneath those mountains, and government just acting as puppet in their hands. They do want to through all these creepy creatures out of the forest and dig out all possible ores and minerals.

The cases like Niyamgiri got attention because it received some global support as well, otherwise that area is also supposed to be infiltrated by Maoists/Naxalites, and should therefore be a national threat. The mining has made the life of people living in the jungles a hell, they definitely do not have the know-how to survive in such climate, where the dust full of alien elements fill their lungs and destroy their crops. The shining India needs that mineral wealth to become brighter. The tribals cannot allow this to happen, as it is land they worship, it is the land they admire, all they want is their land to remain their own.

Why violence?

State believes in the Gandhian philosophy of satyagrha and non-violece, so when a policeman comes running to you, having no other intention than to kill you, try sitting on a hunger strike, trust me you will get heard. When a Godman is beaten in the national capital (for whatever reasons), how can a Dogri, Kondh or any such unheard human (considered uncivilized and uneducated) tribe expect itself to be heard from the jungles. When comrade Azad came to carry a few rounds of talks with the government, he was shot point blank. I guess the government was sure that his existence could bring the real issues out. I must make it clear I do not support any form of violence (is it too late to say that? I hope the forces have not already started surrounding me reading the above questions). But when money involved is so huge, and people in the area know, that government is ready to cross any forbidden lines; then survival becomes the only fathomable question. When all possible sort of forces available in the country, ITBP CRPF, BSF, CISF and adding to them the specially designed-to-kill COBRA, GREYHOUNDS,SCORPIANS become hyperactive in the area, then non-violence will only end up giving away your lands. And that’s what they are fighting for, that’s what they are protecting. The sad part is that along with the tribals, the precious army men are lost in this battle for the capitalists. The Dantewada Massacre was done to just send the message to the state that stop flooding the jungles with the army men, don’t convert schools and hospitals into military camps. They also do not like killing, but in this jungle warfare the rules have been laid down, either kill or get killed. But yes, the tribals have two options- either get killed by the bullet or follow our terms and get killed yourself slowly. They have chosen the first path for the fight for their dignity, for their survival and for their existence.

~

Politicians have made these poor tribal people the enemies of the nation. The media of the country also display a hapless situation, by being sold in the hands of the riches. You will find an energized host shouting at full throttle and asking questions like, why do the Maoist not come out and contest elections and come to mainstream politics? Next time you can tell him “they are not rich enough to pay you”.  The country boasts of its democratic fundamentals, the ministers say we are not a communist government, so we cannot grow fast. The capitalists are making them dictators, and they are paying them handsomely for being so. The power of the industrialists has overpowered the democratic powers. Poor people are paying its cost by giving away their lives. If the state thinks that tribals cannot survive on their own then please let them die on their own. And as u are sure they will die, once they are dead you can fulfill your cartel dreams.     

Here I would like to quote Fali Nariman, “In the relentless march of the history of a nation, there is no second chance. There are only lessons to be learnt from a similarity of situation elsewhere. Dictators take over and establish themselves wherever and whenever the situation in a country goes completely out of hand (in the minds of right thinking people), when law and order breaks down, when politicians will be bought and let it be so known, and (confound them) when once bought, they have not even the residual decency to remain bought!

When settled principles and norms of decent behavior are set at naught, when established conventions are thrown to the winds, no constitution, not even the best-worded, can work.

In such situation, democracy tends to commit suicide.”

The Wildest Roar...

One of the most dramatic day in Indian politics, West Bengal elections have seen what few years ago, people could not even think. Yes, I say a few years ago, because the furor and fervor with which this lady was fighting, people smelled the death of left. She has decimated left, and has severed the 34 years old “red regime”. Communist Party of India (Marxist) has finally lost its stranglehold in the state.

Indian voters have once again proved their prudence; people were angry and disappointed with the socio-economic condition of the state. A similar situation in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK era has come to an end, people have vent out their anger about corruption cases charged against the government. I won’t say, Jayalalitha has won only because people din have much other options for a change, she also has struggled for more than a decade to achieve this. But it is definitely not as glorious a moment as what Mamta Banerjee has done.

In 1977, India demonstrated the power of democracy by ousting Congress, and people chose Janta Party government over that. But congress did return in power after 3 years, Trinamool Congress (TMC) has to take care, that this should not happen in west Bengal. If they are unable to restore law and order condition, or are unable to provide with the change people want, left is still strong enough to take control again. If TMC can benefit from Singur and Nandigram, which definitely were the turning points of the political equation of the state, similar equation could again develop and benefits could be taken by the hard-bitten opposition.

But, we are hopeful and optimistic for the lady who has the nerves to take her decisions without caring much about her seat or coalition. She has always done what she feels is right for the people. No one can forget the Alipore rally, nor can Amar Singh ever forget when she handled him by collar in the well of the parliament. She was the youngest parliamentarian and was able to upset veteran Somnath Chatterjee. It was her dream to decapitate left from the west Bengal when she formed TMC in 1998.It took almost a decade of toiling, but the lady never gave up on her dream and has incessantly worked to fulfill it. And that’s what she said in her victory speech on CNN-IBN- “we did it”. And also mentioned the famous lines of the great Rabindra Nath Tagore, “Where Mind is without fear and the head is held high…” The state has definitely awakened.

Whole country is listening to the wildest roar from the West Bengal, famous for the Bengal tigers, but this tigress has roared louder than any other in the Sunderbans. I can put myriad of instances where people were awestruck by her bold display of speech and action, but the time is to celebrate her glory, time is to take inspiration and work for our dreams, and believe in them. However mighty the opposition be, if you have faith in victory and belief in actions, success will definitely come. Always keep eyes on your goals, never care about the path, because if your eyes can see nothing but the dream, any path becomes beautiful. 

Cows won’t fly, even if you are in love ;)

Rohan was imbued deep into “Linda Goodman Sunsign”, the bible of lovers, to see what actually went wrong in his relation with Smriti, because after much "deep contemplation" he had no one else to blame than the poor sparkling harmless stars. Then the post analysis with friends led to the ever known conclusion that he was never in love with her. Two days later, a sudden and incessant outburst of sad songs from room no S-33 were making the life miserable for everyone in the hostel. He diligently made a long play list in his laptop, though he never showed any sign of indulgence in making any presentation with the same machine. No one needed a second thought to know what has happened to Hemant. The vaunted love guru entered his room just to find Hemant spreading himself wider than the bed sheet. He gave him the palliative dose to cure his poignancy, just to stop this brouhaha, for the relief of rest of the masses. The last year of B.Tech in IIT was becoming more of the last year of love.

After two three and even four years of ingenuous love, the love stories were coming to an abrupt end. The college was full of gossips; everyday a new breakup story to give bon-fire to the hostel nights, obviously whisky was free that day by the protagonist, and the faithful friends to share his sorrows (or was it whisky that was more enchanting?). Everyone was talking love, love was in the air. The concepts like love at first sight, made for each other which were considered more universal than the Schrodinger wave equations, the bonding, sharing and affection stronger that the Sodium’s affinity towards water, and the trust as sacred as the concept of god (only to be felt and not seen) were all shattering.

Why is it that what students thought was love never actually was. What should happen to make it sure that it is love and not infatuation or attraction or lust or need? Is it that guitars and violins will play once you are in love, or there will be a different feeling in which everything will look nice, the angels will be seen flying around, the heart bubbles will keep on bursting here and there? Rest assured cows won’t fly, even if you are in love, its not that perspicacious. Love is not an instant process, that it will happen suddenly and things will change, it takes time. But in this fast track world the young generation doesn’t have time. They are too fast to imply the simple gestures of familiarity as signals of love (in colleges like IITs where the ratio of girls is so poor the situation becomes more vulnerable). Dating is in vogue. People change partners just to find the perfect match. As they move out of college, maybe there is someone better. After all world is such a big place, and who knows that Mr./Ms perfect is waiting outside the college. The comparison between the love lives of friends, lessons of psychology, philosophy and even astrology to make relation better are just futile efforts. What makes a relation stable is its uniqueness, because no two individuals are same, so the relation they share can’t be explained conspicuously and perspicuously by any of these study lines. The perspective may and will differ on most of the issues, that doesn’t mean that there is no compatibility, or there is no chemistry, what is needed is understanding. Respect the relation and respect the thoughts of each other, differences appear when we are unable to understand the rationale behind the thinking of the other person. Expect no miracle to happen in love, but believe in magic of love. The magic will be felt only if the hunt for the better will stop, when there will be sense of belongingness, each thing done for the other will give more pleasure than things done for yourself. Answer to “if you are in love?” lies not in the socially acclaimed signals or theories, but in the inner satisfaction that you derive out of you own inimitable relation. Love is not a scientific fact, but a value laden thesis, take time, be loyal, be emotional and take good care of those you love.

The Inflation Conundrum... (Part-3)

"The Global Liaison"

Globalization no longer is a strange word. It has been cursed a zillion times, and still revered for mutual development. World has recently seen the worst financial crisis, still recuperating, but no country can cut itself off from rest of the world, to delimit its effects. Though some countries are adopting protectionist tendencies, but it has been proved time and again, that this will only worsen the situation. Globalization has put the economy of developing countries at times in vulnerable situations, Inflation being one of such many.  

Central banks no longer are in a comfortable position to goad market in the way and direction they want. Earlier, in order to increase the demand, suitable mechanisms were adopted to increase the money supply. As soon as money enters the market, people are in a better position to buy. Calculations are not that simple these days, courtesy "globalization". Now, in a developed country when money supply is increased to increase the demand, the equation becomes quite complex.  Looking at more lucrative offers in developing markets, people tend to invest more in these markets, causing twin problems. One, the policy making country does not get the desired results of increasing domestic demands. Two, the developing country cannot match this inflow surge causing demand increase in the nation without corresponding supply increase, hence resulting in domestic inflation. So, even if the central bank of developing nations are doing nothing to increase the demand, it can increase due to a policy change in any of the other country and further cause inflation. In solving the inflation conundrum, globalization is a puzzle that still has no known existing solution.

Its a general rule of economics that no country should have more than one central bank, as multiple money creation agencies will cause destabilization in economy. Now, world has become a single economy with multiple money creating agencies (central bank of each country), this is bound to cause destabilization in world economy, brunt of which has to be faced more by developing nations like India. This has been realized by most of the countries and therefore platforms like G-20 are taking a center stage and deciding policies as a whole, so that a policy change in one country should not cause problems in others. Its heartening to see India flexing its economic muscles in such platforms and becoming an integral and important part of any such consortium.

It clearly indicates that inflation is a by product of growth and development, but excessive inflation is a matter of concern for India, especially food inflation. Inflation has the power to change governments, and so UPA government will take all possible measures to curb inflation, but solving this enigma is not easy this time. The question remains how much price do we have to pay, or if UPA will pay the price. In Inflation someone has to pay, lets see who pays...


Note: This ends the three part series of inflation conundrum...

The Inflation Conundrum... (Part-2)

  
"THE PPP Catch-up factor"

Two major milestones in Indian Economy, first one being the liberalization of economy in 1990s and other one being the onset of growth explosion in 2005. For three consecutive years India posted a huge GDP growth rate, bolstering its economy. Brakes were applied by the global meltdown, but India is again poised for high growth rate. The growth is coming but again at some cost, lets see what cost are we paying for this high growth rate.

As a country grows the per capita income increases, which in turn increases the purchasing power of the people living in that nation. PPP(Purchasing Power Parity) is low for any developing country like India. Currently India's PPP correction factor is 2.9. Which indicates that a basket of goods costing 100$ in India, will cost around 290$ in US. The equation is simple, as US is a developed economy so prices of goods are higher as compared to India. As India grows, this PPP correction factor will come down (Indian economy will start matching the US economy). Supposedly after 30 years, it becomes around 1.6. Now, the same basket of goods costing 290$ in US will cost 181$ in India!!. If I take exchange rate to be 50, then the basket costing 5000 INR today, will cost 9050 INR 30 years later.

So, making no policy changes, doing nothing, the inflation will grow by around 2%, just because of the growth of the nation. The point of contention here can be that the exchange rate would not remain the same after 30 years, If India grows then Rupee will appreciate. If Rupee appreciates and the exchange rate becomes 1USD=27 INR then this PPP correction factor will balance the exchange rate. But, the empirical studies of various fast growing economies like Brazil have shown that the exchange rate does not change by this much amount. Rupee will definitely appreciate, but not this much. So, if we take a major contribution by PPP correction factor and a small by Exchange Rate change, then also there will be inflation.

This is the second puzzle government needs to solve, the growth brings with itself inflation, so comparing today's situation with a comfortable 3% inflation during 2001-2004 makes a little sense. Inflation has to be controlled, the policy review is reflecting the concerns and efforts of RBI in this direction, but growth is coming at a price and we all are paying it right now...

Note: Major Inputs from Indian Economic Survey

The Inflation Conundrum... (Part-1)

In a country where people in the bottom quintle spend about 67% of their earning on food items, the current inflation is literally burning them out. The growth saga of India is known to one and all. I feel there are three puzzles contained in the inflation conundrum. Growth is coming at a price, lets see what price we are paying and for how long do we have to pay.

“Faster and Inclusive growth”, that’s on agenda for the eleventh five year plan of Government of India. Inclusive growth contains in itself both social inclusion and financial inclusion. Where social inclusion is the end, financial inclusion is the means to achieve that end. Let’s first look out for how the financial inclusion is taking place. Keeping it very simple, by Financial Inclusion, Government of India is trying to bring more and more people into the ambit of banking. The equation will work both ways, people will get interest on savings, which otherwise was lying in their homes, and banks will get more funds. “Swabhiman”, a scheme where bank correspondents/bank sathis are created for a door to door service is being launched. This way financial inclusion looks a pretty good thing for any economy, which I will not deny. But this inclusion comes at a cost…

Banks in any country play a role of mobilizing the funds, in turn channelizing them in the market. Now what financial inclusion brings with itself is the money that was lying dormant in the common rural household. People start saving their money in financial institutions like banks, so as to gain some interest on their saving, which was not giving any returns earlier. The money, as soon as it reaches the banks, gets into the channel and thus becomes available for investment in the market, which imperatively means that the liquidity in the market increases. It needs no explanation that outcome is inflation.

In earlier days, when the society was not so convoluted, the economy was not liberalized, a few private players in the market, investments more in the control of public sector, RBI with its monetary policy was in a better position to increase or decrease the money supply, which further directly affected the demand. It was easy to control inflation then. Now the equation has become complex, with money and investment pouring from different sources, the monetary policy plays a crucial role in tackling inflation. This also gives the reason why RBI has started mid quarter reviews, as we can’t wait for three months in such dynamic society. The savings are increasing through financial inclusion, people are getting benefitted, but Inflation is bound to increase with financial inclusion, but that cannot be the reason to stop financial inclusion as other benefits are far reaching. This puzzle has to be solved…